@Joe Healey was right to predict a 5-7 2016 season.
I may have had a conflicting prediction for the Sun Devils (8-5), but for me, Joe's prediction served as a realistic baseline. I believed Arizona State would outperform that baseline, specifically because I believed that Oregon, Washington State and Utah would all underperform against their own realistic baseline expectations. Thus far, the jury's out on WSU, Oregon is obviously struggling, and Utah's only got two home games left. Even in Arizona State's precarious quarterback situation, I believe all three of those to be winnable games.
I was being optimistic. Joe was being realistic. At 5-1, the reality cake has been baked, and over the next six games, it's time to add the icing.
National expectations were that ASU would struggle to make a bowl. Jerry Palm, who notably said Washington would be in the CFB Playoff this year,
had ASU out of the bowl picture completely. Athlon Sports said making a bowl would be tough for ASU. Jon Wilner said ASU would be 3-9. The Pac-12 media said ASU would be 8th in the conference, and 5th in the south.
The bottom line is this, ASU might have been dealt a rough hand with injuries to Manny Wilkins, Bryce Perkins and Brady White, but at 5-1, they're going to get to play that hand with house money.
Some notes from Saturday's game:
- @ChillyASU was right about UCLA. He went out to see them play against Arizona and came back saying they were soft. It would seem that sideline tripper and celebrity fisticuff aficionado Sal Alosi hasn't been pulling his weight.
- Antonio Longino tweeted a less-than articulate but wholly accurate scouting report on Josh Rosen before the game. He couldn't have been more right. To me, Josh Rosen came into UCLA a once in five years level pocket passer. He tried to bribe his OL with jewelry so they wouldn't get him killed before his 2018 payday, but that didn't work. Personally, I love the guy. I hated seeing him get hurt on Saturday, but with that kind of punishment, like the kind that Manny self-inflicts at times, it's inevitable.
- Screens and short passes to the RB continue to be a thorn in Arizona State's side. If the Sun Devils really sell out on a blitz, and the secondary is left to get around a block and make a tackle, it rarely ends with good news. Kudos to Koron Crump, whose speed @Hod Rabino championed before he ever committed to ASU, for being able to chase down Soso Jamabo from behind and make a sure TD become a FG. To be fair, it isn't the first time Jamabo has been chased down.
- ASU isn't running the ball early. I don't like it at all. I've now wrapped myself into a giant chicken-or-egg debate trying to justify not giving your best players the ball. With Mike Norvell and DJ Foster, I can definitively call it poor judgement and an obvious mistake... but when ASU is 5-1, Ballage and Richards are a little banged up, and it's obvious that teams are stacking the box, I suppose Chip Lindsey has to take what the defense is giving him. OR DOES HE???? Running the ball is about imposing your will. This early avoidance of sending players between the tackles feels like surrendering before the fight starts. Running back carries in the first half have been in the single digits three weeks in a row. It just doesn;t sit right with me.
- Brady White looked good for his first ever start. The early ball he floated to Tim White (dropped), the touchdown pass to Harry and a few other throws were some of the better balls I've seen an ASU QB let fly. Ever. Now, there's a lot to criticize as well, like the stubborn desire to make a play late in the game that led to him being lost for the season, but if Tim White cuts toward the back of the end zone, and Brady makes that throw, we're talking about something that would be on @JediASU highlights for years to come.
- Putting DSC in for a couple plays (when the Sparky formation would have been a better call) is a debate that would be easy to argue based on the immediate results, but now that we know Brady and Bryce are out for 2016, it's a pointless debate. DSC is probably going to start at Colorado (I don't believe anything coaches say about 50/50 injuries), and will spent the rest of the year at #2. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do. I am not, however, looking forward to the resurrection of the three star vs four star debate that saw people beating up on Blair Angulo for attempting to explain a decision that he wasn't even responsible for making. Beyond that, considering Arizona State's uniquely putrid historical track record with quarterbacks rated 4-stars and above (apart from a few nice starts by Sam Keller), the 3-star rating might actually be a much better omen.
- This offense does not use pass catching tight ends. Predicting some shifting around/transfers if Chip Lindsey isn't given one of the 20 high profile head coaching jobs that will be available this offseason.
