Tomorrow starts the 2016 season and here is my initial attempt to put a probability on each of this year's games. Obviously, this first one is done with very little information about our opponents. It will change as I'm able to watch other teams on our schedule and get a better feel for them and for our Devils.
Here is the methodology:
- I assign a probability of a win to each game, rounding to the nearest 5th%
- I add up all of the probabilities to arrive at an over/under total wins for the season
- I update the probabilities each week, depending on how we play, injuries, and how other teams look
- You all put your probabilities down each week, too, or at least whine and complain about mine
Game by Game predictions (win probability)
Northern Arizona (95%)
Texas Tech (65%)
@UTSA (75%)
Cal (60%)
@USC (20%)
UCLA (35%)
@Colorado (80%)
WSU (50%)
@Oregon (25%)
Utah (65%)
@UW (40%)
@au (50%)
Total wins predicted: 6.6
I have us as solid favorites in 5 games, four toss ups, and three where we're solid dogs.
Where am I wrong and why?
Here is the methodology:
- I assign a probability of a win to each game, rounding to the nearest 5th%
- I add up all of the probabilities to arrive at an over/under total wins for the season
- I update the probabilities each week, depending on how we play, injuries, and how other teams look
- You all put your probabilities down each week, too, or at least whine and complain about mine
Game by Game predictions (win probability)
Northern Arizona (95%)
Texas Tech (65%)
@UTSA (75%)
Cal (60%)
@USC (20%)
UCLA (35%)
@Colorado (80%)
WSU (50%)
@Oregon (25%)
Utah (65%)
@UW (40%)
@au (50%)
Total wins predicted: 6.6
I have us as solid favorites in 5 games, four toss ups, and three where we're solid dogs.
Where am I wrong and why?
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