Going to need to tag in @Snake River Devil for some help, but here's what seems to be the case.
I'm trying to wrap my head around the possible Big-12 title game seeding scenarios. Obviously the result of tomorrow's GCU game doesn't impact any of this.
For reference, here are the current standings.
If ASU sweeps Oklahoma State:
A very unique thing to keep in mind here is that currently WVU is #1 with a 19-6 conference record to ASU's 18-9 conference record. It does not appear that WVU will be making up two "postponed" games from its Oklahoma State series right before St. Patrick's Day.
If WVU is swept and ASU sweeps, WVU would be 19-9 in conference play and ASU would be 21-9. If WVU is not making up the canceled games, then that scenario would give WVU a .679 conference winning percentage and ASU's would be .700. I'd imagine that scenario would give ASU the top seed, since they'd (1) have more conference wins and (2) have a higher conference win percentage?
Now then, if ASU sweeps and WVU sweeps, WVU will have more conference wins and a greater win percentage, so it seems obvious that outcome would be #1 WVU and #2 ASU
If ASU sweeps and WVU wins 2/3, I'm not sure if that constitutes a true tiebreaker because both teams will have 21 conference wins, or if WVU gets the automatic nod for having a better win percentage.
The scenario that really has me puzzled is if ASU sweeps and WVU goes 1-2. ASU would have more conference wins (21 to 20), but WVU would have a greater win percentage (.704 for WVU to .700 for ASU), so I'm not sure how that works out.
WVU hosts Kansas, which is far from a gimme for the Mountaineers.
If ASU wins OSU series but doesn't sweep:
If ASU takes 2/3 against OSU, they'd be at 20-10 in the Big-12. Only two other teams (TCU and Kansas) can possibly end up 20-10 as well, since the most losses WVU can have is nine and all teams below ASU, TCU and KU already have at least 11 conference losses. KU and/or TCU would need to sweep this weekend in order to create that tiebreaker.
-If neither Kansas nor TCU sweeps this weekend, ASU has sole ownership of second.
-If Kansas OR TCU (but not both) sweeps, ASU has the tiebreaker over either due to having won the series against each, which would result in ASU getting second place.
-If Kansas AND TCU both sweep, the multi-team tiebreaker listed further below come into effect. I would imagine that the end result would be ASU #2, TCU #3, Kansas #4, since Kansas was swept by TCU and lost 2/3 against ASU, but ASU took 2/3 from both teams.
ASU vs TCU + KU: 4-2 (2-1 vs. both)
TCU vs KU + ASU: 4-2 (3-0 vs. KU, 1-2 vs. ASU)
KU vs TCU + ASU: 1-5 (0-3 vs. TCU, 1-2 vs. ASU)
As previously mentioned, Kansas plays at WVU, while TCU plays at last-place Utah.
Multiple-Team Ties (via Big-12 website)
In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in a ‘mini round-robin’ among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams in a series earns the highest seed.
2. The best winning percentage in a ‘mini round-robin’ consisting of the first games of the Conference series between the tied teams. If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 3.
3. Win percentage against the highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
4. Draw
If ASU loses 2/3 or is swept:
In these two situations, ASU would finish either 19-11 or 18-12. There are five other teams (Kansas, TCU, Arizona, KSU, OSU) that can technically finish with between 10-12 conference losses. The scenarios seem too vast at this point to really outline without it being a wildly confusing novel.
To sum it up, if I have the information right:
-If ASU sweeps OSU: Worst case is #2 seed, possibly (?) #1 seed
-If ASU wins 2/3 vs OSU: #2 seed no matter what; can't get #1, can't drop to #3 or worse
-If ASU wins 1/3 or is swept vs OSU: CHAOS
I'm trying to wrap my head around the possible Big-12 title game seeding scenarios. Obviously the result of tomorrow's GCU game doesn't impact any of this.
For reference, here are the current standings.
If ASU sweeps Oklahoma State:
A very unique thing to keep in mind here is that currently WVU is #1 with a 19-6 conference record to ASU's 18-9 conference record. It does not appear that WVU will be making up two "postponed" games from its Oklahoma State series right before St. Patrick's Day.
If WVU is swept and ASU sweeps, WVU would be 19-9 in conference play and ASU would be 21-9. If WVU is not making up the canceled games, then that scenario would give WVU a .679 conference winning percentage and ASU's would be .700. I'd imagine that scenario would give ASU the top seed, since they'd (1) have more conference wins and (2) have a higher conference win percentage?
Now then, if ASU sweeps and WVU sweeps, WVU will have more conference wins and a greater win percentage, so it seems obvious that outcome would be #1 WVU and #2 ASU
If ASU sweeps and WVU wins 2/3, I'm not sure if that constitutes a true tiebreaker because both teams will have 21 conference wins, or if WVU gets the automatic nod for having a better win percentage.
The scenario that really has me puzzled is if ASU sweeps and WVU goes 1-2. ASU would have more conference wins (21 to 20), but WVU would have a greater win percentage (.704 for WVU to .700 for ASU), so I'm not sure how that works out.
WVU hosts Kansas, which is far from a gimme for the Mountaineers.
If ASU wins OSU series but doesn't sweep:
If ASU takes 2/3 against OSU, they'd be at 20-10 in the Big-12. Only two other teams (TCU and Kansas) can possibly end up 20-10 as well, since the most losses WVU can have is nine and all teams below ASU, TCU and KU already have at least 11 conference losses. KU and/or TCU would need to sweep this weekend in order to create that tiebreaker.
-If neither Kansas nor TCU sweeps this weekend, ASU has sole ownership of second.
-If Kansas OR TCU (but not both) sweeps, ASU has the tiebreaker over either due to having won the series against each, which would result in ASU getting second place.
-If Kansas AND TCU both sweep, the multi-team tiebreaker listed further below come into effect. I would imagine that the end result would be ASU #2, TCU #3, Kansas #4, since Kansas was swept by TCU and lost 2/3 against ASU, but ASU took 2/3 from both teams.
ASU vs TCU + KU: 4-2 (2-1 vs. both)
TCU vs KU + ASU: 4-2 (3-0 vs. KU, 1-2 vs. ASU)
KU vs TCU + ASU: 1-5 (0-3 vs. TCU, 1-2 vs. ASU)
As previously mentioned, Kansas plays at WVU, while TCU plays at last-place Utah.
Multiple-Team Ties (via Big-12 website)
In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in a ‘mini round-robin’ among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams in a series earns the highest seed.
2. The best winning percentage in a ‘mini round-robin’ consisting of the first games of the Conference series between the tied teams. If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 3.
3. Win percentage against the highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
4. Draw
If ASU loses 2/3 or is swept:
In these two situations, ASU would finish either 19-11 or 18-12. There are five other teams (Kansas, TCU, Arizona, KSU, OSU) that can technically finish with between 10-12 conference losses. The scenarios seem too vast at this point to really outline without it being a wildly confusing novel.
To sum it up, if I have the information right:
-If ASU sweeps OSU: Worst case is #2 seed, possibly (?) #1 seed
-If ASU wins 2/3 vs OSU: #2 seed no matter what; can't get #1, can't drop to #3 or worse
-If ASU wins 1/3 or is swept vs OSU: CHAOS
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