So it looked pretty bad. What do the numbers say about ASU's visit to Texas.
Per Football Outsiders:
ASU
Outside of an abysmal first quarter, the success and big play rates are right around the national average. Which would be more acceptable if we we're playing a team that has considerably less talent than we do. A lot of FGs instead of TDs on drives that seemed like they were going well, but stalled.
UTSA
As was kind of apparent during the game, the big play is the only thing that allowed UTSA to be successful in this game (other than the punts obviously). Their success rate was well below average for most of the game and just tanked in the 4th when Moeakiola moved to spur.
Success Over Time
ASU
We really see Manny's struggles throwing the ball early here with very little success passing in the first half. Interesting to see the rushing success early and it tapering off while the passing game had more in the second half. Big plays were pretty consistently average. If Manny hits on a few more of those open deep balls, this probably looks a little more rosy.
UTSA
UTSA really wasn't very successful on offense. Especially once ASU moved Liau. Again this shows that it's the big plays that really kept UTSA afloat.
Success Head to Head
Outside of the first quarter, ASU was way more successful that UTSA, which is what you would expect, but the big plays were close to even.
Per Football Outsiders:
- A "successful" play, as defined by Football Outsiders, is basically when a play gains enough yardage to keep the offense on track, i.e., 50% of needed yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or 100% on 3rd/4th.
- A "big play" (aka an "explosive play") has different definitions depending on the analyst, but I use a generous one: a run of ≥12 yards, or a pass of ≥16, is a big play.
ASU
Outside of an abysmal first quarter, the success and big play rates are right around the national average. Which would be more acceptable if we we're playing a team that has considerably less talent than we do. A lot of FGs instead of TDs on drives that seemed like they were going well, but stalled.
UTSA
As was kind of apparent during the game, the big play is the only thing that allowed UTSA to be successful in this game (other than the punts obviously). Their success rate was well below average for most of the game and just tanked in the 4th when Moeakiola moved to spur.
Success Over Time
ASU
We really see Manny's struggles throwing the ball early here with very little success passing in the first half. Interesting to see the rushing success early and it tapering off while the passing game had more in the second half. Big plays were pretty consistently average. If Manny hits on a few more of those open deep balls, this probably looks a little more rosy.
UTSA
UTSA really wasn't very successful on offense. Especially once ASU moved Liau. Again this shows that it's the big plays that really kept UTSA afloat.
Success Head to Head
Outside of the first quarter, ASU was way more successful that UTSA, which is what you would expect, but the big plays were close to even.
