Week 2 of my pet project of tracking how ASU is doing based on some advanced stats cooked up by some crazy smart people.
Per Football Outsiders:
ASU
Success Rate 52.2% Big Play Rate 13.3%
No big surprise here, but ASU had a pretty successful night on offense. After starting a little sluggishly in the big play department, ASU really turned it on in the second quarter scoring on 8 of their next 10 drives (excluding the end of half). The big play rate was about average, but the success rate on the night was very high. Worth noting, of 10 scoring drives, 8 contained a big play. Of the two that didn't, one started at the TTU 1 yard line. Also worth noting that ASU's numbers took a bit of a hit as they took the air out of the ball at the end of the game to kill the clock. If you take out ASU's last 11 plays of the game, their numbers are 57.0% and 15.0%
Texas Tech
Success Rate 51.3% Big Play Rate 13.2%
Tech also was pretty successful on the night. Honestly the numbers ended up crazy close. You can really see illustrated here what CTG and CK were talking about with ASU's half time adjustments. Tech really struggled in the third.
Success Over Time
ASU
Clearly shows that after a somewhat slow start, ASU was able to maintain a high rate of success, both running and throwing, until they ran the clock out at the end of the ball game.
Texas Tech
Tech was successful, but less consistent then ASU was. They made up for that with more big plays earlier in the game. Again, you can really see the dip after half time.
Success Head to Head
I thought I'd show the successful plays and success rates mapped against each other to attempt to show the flow of the game a little bit. The bars indicate the quarters. Positive shows an ASU advantage while negative numbers show a Texas Tech advantage.
So a fault here lies in the different number of plays run by each team, so the numbers don't line up exactly, but it's good enough for a general idea of the ebb and flow of the game. This shows ASU as the more successful team for pretty much three quarters, but Tech keeping pace with a significant advantage in big plays. Eventually, again in the third quarter, ASU pulls away in both categories and Tech can never catch up.
I've put both the games so far into one set of graphs that I can post, it's kind of interesting and would be more interesting with more data as the season goes on, but I thought I'd break it up a little. I also was thinking of putting UTSA's last game data together for a look ahead.
Thoughts?
Per Football Outsiders:
- A "successful" play, as defined by Football Outsiders, is basically when a play gains enough yardage to keep the offense on track, i.e., 50% of needed yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or 100% on 3rd/4th.
- A "big play" (aka an "explosive play") has different definitions depending on the analyst, but I use a generous one: a run of ≥12 yards, or a pass of ≥16, is a big play.
ASU
Success Rate 52.2% Big Play Rate 13.3%
No big surprise here, but ASU had a pretty successful night on offense. After starting a little sluggishly in the big play department, ASU really turned it on in the second quarter scoring on 8 of their next 10 drives (excluding the end of half). The big play rate was about average, but the success rate on the night was very high. Worth noting, of 10 scoring drives, 8 contained a big play. Of the two that didn't, one started at the TTU 1 yard line. Also worth noting that ASU's numbers took a bit of a hit as they took the air out of the ball at the end of the game to kill the clock. If you take out ASU's last 11 plays of the game, their numbers are 57.0% and 15.0%
Texas Tech
Success Rate 51.3% Big Play Rate 13.2%
Tech also was pretty successful on the night. Honestly the numbers ended up crazy close. You can really see illustrated here what CTG and CK were talking about with ASU's half time adjustments. Tech really struggled in the third.
Success Over Time
ASU
Clearly shows that after a somewhat slow start, ASU was able to maintain a high rate of success, both running and throwing, until they ran the clock out at the end of the ball game.
Texas Tech
Tech was successful, but less consistent then ASU was. They made up for that with more big plays earlier in the game. Again, you can really see the dip after half time.
Success Head to Head
I thought I'd show the successful plays and success rates mapped against each other to attempt to show the flow of the game a little bit. The bars indicate the quarters. Positive shows an ASU advantage while negative numbers show a Texas Tech advantage.
So a fault here lies in the different number of plays run by each team, so the numbers don't line up exactly, but it's good enough for a general idea of the ebb and flow of the game. This shows ASU as the more successful team for pretty much three quarters, but Tech keeping pace with a significant advantage in big plays. Eventually, again in the third quarter, ASU pulls away in both categories and Tech can never catch up.
I've put both the games so far into one set of graphs that I can post, it's kind of interesting and would be more interesting with more data as the season goes on, but I thought I'd break it up a little. I also was thinking of putting UTSA's last game data together for a look ahead.
Thoughts?
