I jumped into the numbers on ASU's pass defense this morning to get an idea of whether ASU is catching some good quarterbacks at the right time, or making quarterbacks look good. The answers probably won't surprise you.
Since the start of Pac-12 play in 2015 the Sun Devils have played 18 games. Over that span they've given up an average of 399 yards passing on 27 completions, to go along with three passing TDs per game.
To put that number in context, only four FBS QBs average more than 340 passing yards per game this season. ASU has played three of them (Mahomes, Webb, Falk). Mahomes is the only QB passing for more than 400 yards per game in 2016. Last year Luke Falk was the NCAA's leader at 380 yards per game.
This is a historically poor pass defense that has had the disadvantage of facing several pro prospects and college greats during its time of duress.
Jared Goff (542), Skyler Howard (532), Justin Herbert (489), Davis Webb (478), Jake Browning (405), Josh Rosen (400 in 3 quarters in 2016) and Brandon Dawkins (305 splitting time with Randall in 2015) can all currently claim that their highest yardage total came against the Sun Devils- and that's just in the last 18 games. Luke Falk went over 600 yards vs ASU as a freshman in 2013. In Falk's two games against ASU over the last season and a half, he's 78/108 for 895 yards and 8 TDs.
Patrick Mahomes (540), Shawn Liufau (389 in 2015) and Case Cookus (369) all have had some of their best performances to date against ASU as well.
There were a couple, however, that stood out to me as the best examples of just how rough it's been for ASU's secondary lately. First is the Sun Devils loss to Utah in 2015, where Travis Wilson went 26/36 for 297 yards and 2 TDs. Wilson's average over 12 games as a senior was 16/26 for 174 yards.
Another was Cody Kessler's 375 yards on 19/33 passing against ASU in 2015. Kessler threw for 300+ yards 11 times in his USC career, but against ASU he did it on 19 completions- tied for the least amongst all his 300+ yard efforts. He also managed that total in just over 3 quarters. In Kessler's 4th quarter in that win over ASU he was 2/2 or 34 yards. It was his 2nd best statistical performance against a Power 5 school during his career at USC.
Even performances that seem to have been above average over the last 18 games creat cause for concern when dissected further. Yes, ASU intercepted Jake Browning 3 times last year in a home win, but his 405 yards is a far departure from the 214 passing yards per game he's averaged in his other 12 starts against Pac-12 opponents.
The lowest yardage total they've allowed came against UTSA and Dalton Sturm, but Sturm still managed to throw 3 TDs without an interception in a game that the Roadrunners nearly won.
It can be argued that ASU's best performance as a secondary came against Oregon in a game where they surrendered 61 points in 3 overtimes. Vernon Adams' 23/40 for 315 yards and 4 TDs was actually a fairly standard performance, and if you consider that some of his passing yardage should have been disallowed, it's not a performance you can really hang your head about- especially comparatively.
Arizona State also did a good job of rattling Josh Rosen as a true freshman, holding him to 280 yards and 2 TDs on 22/40 passing. Now that Justin Herbert, Oregon's 4th most heralded QB recruit of the 2016 class threw for nearly 500 yards in just over 3 quarters, it really makes ASU's 2015 performance against the #1 pocket passer of the 2015 class look good.
Another concern is that over the last 18 games, Arizona State is allowing nearly 15 yards per completion. There are 36 wide receivers in the FBS so far this year that average 15 yards or more per reception on at least 4 catches per game. An average of one players on every fourth team is accomplishing this feat.
Meanwhile, ASU gives up 27 completions per game at 14.78 yards per reception.
Now, these are just numbers. Do I believe they reflect an issue with secondary recruiting in conjunction with irregularly superior competition? Yes, but only to an extent. It doesn't explain why Jake Browning, Travis Wilson and Justin Herbert's statistical spikes, and it doesn't explain why teams with poorer recruiting results than ASU have had better results in their secondary.
Colorado is leading the Pac-12 in passing defense by giving up 179 yards per game and under 11 yards per completion. And they're doing it with six primary defensive backs who weren't exactly pressworthy when they committed.
Chidobie Awuzie and Tedric Thompson were 3-stars in the 2013 class who had 6 combined Power 5 offers.
Akhello Witherspoon (3 stars) and Afolabi Laguda (2 stars) were JuCo additions in 2014 and 2015 and had 5 combined power 5 offers.
Ryan Moeller was a walk-on in 2013, and Isaiah Oliver's only power-5 offer was Colorado.
You can't credibly believe on talent alone that this Colorado group could have similar results at ASU- therefore, it comes down to player development and schemes. I mean, you could double what Colorado allows and that would be a drastic improvement for ASU.
Is there a specific coach that deserves the blame? Is it all related to blitzing? All of that is above my ability as a recruiting analyst and a stats junkie. I figured I'd lay all this out and get your thoughts.
Since the start of Pac-12 play in 2015 the Sun Devils have played 18 games. Over that span they've given up an average of 399 yards passing on 27 completions, to go along with three passing TDs per game.
To put that number in context, only four FBS QBs average more than 340 passing yards per game this season. ASU has played three of them (Mahomes, Webb, Falk). Mahomes is the only QB passing for more than 400 yards per game in 2016. Last year Luke Falk was the NCAA's leader at 380 yards per game.
This is a historically poor pass defense that has had the disadvantage of facing several pro prospects and college greats during its time of duress.
Jared Goff (542), Skyler Howard (532), Justin Herbert (489), Davis Webb (478), Jake Browning (405), Josh Rosen (400 in 3 quarters in 2016) and Brandon Dawkins (305 splitting time with Randall in 2015) can all currently claim that their highest yardage total came against the Sun Devils- and that's just in the last 18 games. Luke Falk went over 600 yards vs ASU as a freshman in 2013. In Falk's two games against ASU over the last season and a half, he's 78/108 for 895 yards and 8 TDs.
Patrick Mahomes (540), Shawn Liufau (389 in 2015) and Case Cookus (369) all have had some of their best performances to date against ASU as well.
There were a couple, however, that stood out to me as the best examples of just how rough it's been for ASU's secondary lately. First is the Sun Devils loss to Utah in 2015, where Travis Wilson went 26/36 for 297 yards and 2 TDs. Wilson's average over 12 games as a senior was 16/26 for 174 yards.
Another was Cody Kessler's 375 yards on 19/33 passing against ASU in 2015. Kessler threw for 300+ yards 11 times in his USC career, but against ASU he did it on 19 completions- tied for the least amongst all his 300+ yard efforts. He also managed that total in just over 3 quarters. In Kessler's 4th quarter in that win over ASU he was 2/2 or 34 yards. It was his 2nd best statistical performance against a Power 5 school during his career at USC.
Even performances that seem to have been above average over the last 18 games creat cause for concern when dissected further. Yes, ASU intercepted Jake Browning 3 times last year in a home win, but his 405 yards is a far departure from the 214 passing yards per game he's averaged in his other 12 starts against Pac-12 opponents.
The lowest yardage total they've allowed came against UTSA and Dalton Sturm, but Sturm still managed to throw 3 TDs without an interception in a game that the Roadrunners nearly won.
It can be argued that ASU's best performance as a secondary came against Oregon in a game where they surrendered 61 points in 3 overtimes. Vernon Adams' 23/40 for 315 yards and 4 TDs was actually a fairly standard performance, and if you consider that some of his passing yardage should have been disallowed, it's not a performance you can really hang your head about- especially comparatively.
Arizona State also did a good job of rattling Josh Rosen as a true freshman, holding him to 280 yards and 2 TDs on 22/40 passing. Now that Justin Herbert, Oregon's 4th most heralded QB recruit of the 2016 class threw for nearly 500 yards in just over 3 quarters, it really makes ASU's 2015 performance against the #1 pocket passer of the 2015 class look good.
Another concern is that over the last 18 games, Arizona State is allowing nearly 15 yards per completion. There are 36 wide receivers in the FBS so far this year that average 15 yards or more per reception on at least 4 catches per game. An average of one players on every fourth team is accomplishing this feat.
Meanwhile, ASU gives up 27 completions per game at 14.78 yards per reception.
Now, these are just numbers. Do I believe they reflect an issue with secondary recruiting in conjunction with irregularly superior competition? Yes, but only to an extent. It doesn't explain why Jake Browning, Travis Wilson and Justin Herbert's statistical spikes, and it doesn't explain why teams with poorer recruiting results than ASU have had better results in their secondary.
Colorado is leading the Pac-12 in passing defense by giving up 179 yards per game and under 11 yards per completion. And they're doing it with six primary defensive backs who weren't exactly pressworthy when they committed.
Chidobie Awuzie and Tedric Thompson were 3-stars in the 2013 class who had 6 combined Power 5 offers.
Akhello Witherspoon (3 stars) and Afolabi Laguda (2 stars) were JuCo additions in 2014 and 2015 and had 5 combined power 5 offers.
Ryan Moeller was a walk-on in 2013, and Isaiah Oliver's only power-5 offer was Colorado.
You can't credibly believe on talent alone that this Colorado group could have similar results at ASU- therefore, it comes down to player development and schemes. I mean, you could double what Colorado allows and that would be a drastic improvement for ASU.
Is there a specific coach that deserves the blame? Is it all related to blitzing? All of that is above my ability as a recruiting analyst and a stats junkie. I figured I'd lay all this out and get your thoughts.
