I started to respond to Dust Devil's post about Spring ball and it was getting pretty long winded and I kept circling back to the comparison of talent/question marks at the other schools.......and there were a lot of excellent responses already posted.....so I just decided to focus on doing a "brief" synopsis on each Pac-12 team and ranked them in order for 2016.
The undesirable combination of a new QB and a heavy loss of OL is limited to ASU, Stanford and Oregon. I'm betting that they probably have as much confidence in their replacements as I do about ours...and that is that we will be improved over last season. If it was a Wazzu or Udub or any of the bottom 5 that I listed, I would say that it will have a huge negative impact on their season...but not for ASU, Stanford or Oregon in 2016.
Ranking simply the number of returning starters puts us tied for 8th ------Colorado-17, Oregon State-16, USC-15, Washington-15, UCLA-15, Wazzu-14, AU-14, ASU-11, Oregon-11, Utah-11, Cal-10 , Stanford-9
Only ASU, Wazzu, OSU and Oregon return all of their specialists and that could be huge
With a little luck I could see ASU as high as #2(10-3) and as low as #7 (7-6). I'm predicting 9-4.
Not a great year to have 5 road Pac 12 games (which I assume even further sets up 2017 with 5 home Pac 12 games). A rookie QB is not a great thing in Eugene or Seattle or Tucson or the Coliseum (should be OK in Boulder, but they will be improved)
1)USC should be the clear cut pick to win the Pac
Returning starters--9-offense/6 defense place kicker/long snapper/holder
QB-new starter-redshirt junior-former #1 rated QB in USA in 2014
They return 4 of 5 OL but lose 3 of 4 DL. All vacancies will be replaced by 4 star or 5 star recruits including Porter Gustin, Osa Massina, Marvel Tell, Noah Jefferson, Rasheem Green, John Houston, Kenny Bigelow....all of which could be better than their predecessor. (& that does not include a single 5 star (2) or 4 star (11) from the 2016 recruiting class.
Biggest losses-QB Cody Kessler and OLB Su'a Cravens
Offensive skill positions returning-Top 2 RBs, top 4 WRs, top TE
We play USC in the Coliseum
2)Washington
Returning starters-8-Offense/7-defense return PK, KOR, PR
QB-Jake Browning returns
Return 4 of 5 OL, 2 of 4 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Jaydon Mickens, Center Siosifa Tufunga, starting TE/2nd leading receiver Josh Perkins, leading receiving RB Dwayne Washington (25/315/12.6/3 TDs)
Offensive skill positions returning-QB Jake Browning, leading rusher Myles Gaskin, 3rd leading receiver Dante Pettis
We play Udub in Seattle
3)UCLA
They lose A LOT but they have recruited well for a long time
Returning starters-5-offense/10-defense (9 if you count Myles Jack who was out with an injury early) (none of specialists return)
QB-Josh Rosen returns
Lose 3 of 5 OL,
Biggest losses-leading rusher Paul Perkins, NT Kenny Clark, ILB Myles Jack, top 2 and 4th leading WRs Payton/Duarte/Fuller, place kicker Faibairn, C/G/T Brendel/Redmond/Benonoch
Offensive skill positions returning-QB Rosen, RB Jamabo, RB Starks, WR Massington
We play UCLA at home
4)Stanford
They lose A LOT but they have recruited very well for quite a while now.
Returning starters 4-offense/5-defense punter/KO returner/Punt returner all return, lose PK/LS
QB-new stater-redshirt soph Keller Chryst-4 star recruit from 2014
They lose 4 of 5 OL return 2 of 3 DL
They lose their top 2 WRs, their top TE
Biggest losses-QB Kevin Hogan, 4 of 5 OL,3 of 4 DBs, WR Devin Cajuste, TE Austin Hooper, WR Michael Rector, DE Aziz Shittu, ILB Blake Martinez
Offensive skill positions returning-top RB in the country, top receiver (McCaffrey), Owusu, Irwin and very dangerous Bryce Love.
We do not play Stanford
5)Wazzu
Returning starters-8-Offense/6-Defense return PK/P/LS/KOR/PR
QB-Luke Falk returns
Return 3 of 5 OL, lose 3 of 4 DL
Biggest losses-2nd leading receiver Dom Williams(75/1,040/13.9/11 TDs), LG/LT Joe Dahl/Gunnar Eklund, DT Destiny Vaeao, SS Taylor Tailiulu, WLB Jeremiah Allison
Offensive skill positions returning- QB Luke Falke, leading reciever Gabe Marks (104/1,192/11.5/15 TDs), top 3 leading rushers, 3rd/4th/5th/6th leading receivers
We play Wazzu at Home
6)Oregon
Returning Starters-6-offense/5-defense all specialists return
QB-new starter 5th yr transfer Dokota Prokup
Lose 3 of 5 OL, lose 2 of 3 DL....lose all 4 LBs, return all 4 DBs
Biggest Losses-leading QB Vernon Adams, DE DeForst Buckner, leading WR Bralon Addison (63/804/12.8/10 TDs), OLBs Tyson Coleman/Christian French, LT/LG/C Tyler Johnstone/Matt Pierson/Matt Hegarty, NG Alex Balducci, ILBs Rodney Hardrick/Joe Walker
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-Top 3 RBs Royce Freeman/Taj Griffin/Kani Benoit, 2nd/3rd/4th leading WRs Darren Carrington/Dwayne Standford/Charles Nelson
We play Oregon in Eugene
7)AU
Returning Starters-7-Offense/7-Defense (assuming returns from injury) lose their PK/P/LS return KOR/PR
QB-Anu Solomon returns
Return 3 of 5 OL and 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Caleb Jones (55/904/16.4/5 TDs), leading rusher (due to Wilson's injury) Jared Baker (131/798/6.1/9 TDs), 3rd leading rusher Jarrard Randal (78/702/9.0/5 TDs), 2nd leading WR Johnnie Jackson (50/612/12.2/5 TDs), 4th leading WR David Richards(43/548/12.7/4TDs)
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-QB Anu Solomon ((205/330/2,667/62.1/20 TDs/5 INTs), 2nd leading rusher Nick Wilson (133/725/5.5/8 TDs), 3rd/5th/6th leading receivers Nate Phillips/Samaji Grant/Trey Griffey
We play AU in Tucson
8)Colorado
Returning Starters-9-Offense/8-defense return Punter/PK/KOR lose PR/LS
QB-Sefo Liufau returns
Return 4 of 5 OL, 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Neslon Spruce (89/1,053/11.8/4 TDs), LT Stehan Nembot, DT Justin Solis, FS Jared Bell, CB Ken Crawley
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-QB Sefo Liufau (214-344/2,418/62.2%/9 TDs/6 INTs), leading rusher Phillip Lindsey (140/653/4.7/6TDs), 2nd/3rd/4th leading receivers Shay Fields/Devin Ross/Sean Irwin,
We play Colorado in Boulder
9)Utah
Returning Starters-5-Offense/6-Defense return PK Andy Phillips/LS/PR/KOR
QB-new starter--RS Jr juco transfer Troy Williams?
Return 4 of 5 OL, return 3 of 4 DL...lose all 3 LBs, return all 4 DBs
Biggest Losses-Punter Tom Hackett, QB Travis Wilson(and 2nd leading rusher), Leading RB Devonte Booker, 2nd leading WR Kenneth Scott (39/457/11.7/4 TDs, LBs Gionni Paul/Jared Norris/Jason Wittingham
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-3rd leading rusher Joe WIlliams (104/477/4.6/3 TDs), Leading receiver Brian Covey (43/519/12.1/4 TDs)
We play Utah at Home
10)Cal
Returning Starters-4-Offense/6-Defense return PK/LS/PR lose Punter/KOR
QB-new starter "That's one of the things we've always done pretty well is figure out what a quarterback can do and adjust the offense accordingly," Dykes said.
Return 4 of 5 OL, return 2 of 4 DL
Biggest Losses-QB Jared Goff, top 6 WRs Lawler/Treggs/Davis/Powe/Harris/Anderson, LT Brian Farley, DT Mustafa Jalil, CB Jarius White
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-top 3 rushers from 2015 Khalfani Muhammed (87/586/5.7/1 TD), Vic Enwere (106/505/4.8/8) &Tre Watson (89/504/5.7/3 TDs). The leading returning receiver had 19/249/13.1/1 TD)
We play Cal at home
11)Oregon State
Returning Starters-8-Offense/8-Defense all specialists return
QB-new starter Utah St. transfer Darryl Garretson
Return 3 of 5 OL, lose 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-CB Larry Scott, NT Kyle Peco, RG Isaac Seumalo, top 2 rushers Seth Collins and Storm Woods,
Offensive Skill Position Players Returning-top 2 leading receivers Villamin (43/660/15.3/5 TDs) & Victor Boldin (46/461/10.0/3 TDs), 3rd leading rusher Ryan Nall (73/455/6.2/3 TDs)
We don't play OSU
ASU
Returning Starters-6-Offense/5-Defense all specialists return
QB-new starter
Lose 4 of 5 OL. return 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses- 4 starting OL, QB Mike Bercovici, leading WR Devin Lucien, leading sack/TFL Tony Longino, CB Lloyd Carrington, NT Demetrious Cherry, BS Jordan Simone, 3rd leading receiver/3rd leading rusher DJ Foster
Offensive Skill Position Players Returning-top 2 rushers Demario Richard & Kalen Ballage, 2nd leading WR Tim White (57/633/11.1/8 TDs), 5th leading receiver TE Kody Kohl (32/368/11.5/4TDs)
The undesirable combination of a new QB and a heavy loss of OL is limited to ASU, Stanford and Oregon. I'm betting that they probably have as much confidence in their replacements as I do about ours...and that is that we will be improved over last season. If it was a Wazzu or Udub or any of the bottom 5 that I listed, I would say that it will have a huge negative impact on their season...but not for ASU, Stanford or Oregon in 2016.
Ranking simply the number of returning starters puts us tied for 8th ------Colorado-17, Oregon State-16, USC-15, Washington-15, UCLA-15, Wazzu-14, AU-14, ASU-11, Oregon-11, Utah-11, Cal-10 , Stanford-9
Only ASU, Wazzu, OSU and Oregon return all of their specialists and that could be huge
With a little luck I could see ASU as high as #2(10-3) and as low as #7 (7-6). I'm predicting 9-4.
Not a great year to have 5 road Pac 12 games (which I assume even further sets up 2017 with 5 home Pac 12 games). A rookie QB is not a great thing in Eugene or Seattle or Tucson or the Coliseum (should be OK in Boulder, but they will be improved)
1)USC should be the clear cut pick to win the Pac
Returning starters--9-offense/6 defense place kicker/long snapper/holder
QB-new starter-redshirt junior-former #1 rated QB in USA in 2014
They return 4 of 5 OL but lose 3 of 4 DL. All vacancies will be replaced by 4 star or 5 star recruits including Porter Gustin, Osa Massina, Marvel Tell, Noah Jefferson, Rasheem Green, John Houston, Kenny Bigelow....all of which could be better than their predecessor. (& that does not include a single 5 star (2) or 4 star (11) from the 2016 recruiting class.
Biggest losses-QB Cody Kessler and OLB Su'a Cravens
Offensive skill positions returning-Top 2 RBs, top 4 WRs, top TE
We play USC in the Coliseum
2)Washington
Returning starters-8-Offense/7-defense return PK, KOR, PR
QB-Jake Browning returns
Return 4 of 5 OL, 2 of 4 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Jaydon Mickens, Center Siosifa Tufunga, starting TE/2nd leading receiver Josh Perkins, leading receiving RB Dwayne Washington (25/315/12.6/3 TDs)
Offensive skill positions returning-QB Jake Browning, leading rusher Myles Gaskin, 3rd leading receiver Dante Pettis
We play Udub in Seattle
3)UCLA
They lose A LOT but they have recruited well for a long time
Returning starters-5-offense/10-defense (9 if you count Myles Jack who was out with an injury early) (none of specialists return)
QB-Josh Rosen returns
Lose 3 of 5 OL,
Biggest losses-leading rusher Paul Perkins, NT Kenny Clark, ILB Myles Jack, top 2 and 4th leading WRs Payton/Duarte/Fuller, place kicker Faibairn, C/G/T Brendel/Redmond/Benonoch
Offensive skill positions returning-QB Rosen, RB Jamabo, RB Starks, WR Massington
We play UCLA at home
4)Stanford
They lose A LOT but they have recruited very well for quite a while now.
Returning starters 4-offense/5-defense punter/KO returner/Punt returner all return, lose PK/LS
QB-new stater-redshirt soph Keller Chryst-4 star recruit from 2014
They lose 4 of 5 OL return 2 of 3 DL
They lose their top 2 WRs, their top TE
Biggest losses-QB Kevin Hogan, 4 of 5 OL,3 of 4 DBs, WR Devin Cajuste, TE Austin Hooper, WR Michael Rector, DE Aziz Shittu, ILB Blake Martinez
Offensive skill positions returning-top RB in the country, top receiver (McCaffrey), Owusu, Irwin and very dangerous Bryce Love.
We do not play Stanford
5)Wazzu
Returning starters-8-Offense/6-Defense return PK/P/LS/KOR/PR
QB-Luke Falk returns
Return 3 of 5 OL, lose 3 of 4 DL
Biggest losses-2nd leading receiver Dom Williams(75/1,040/13.9/11 TDs), LG/LT Joe Dahl/Gunnar Eklund, DT Destiny Vaeao, SS Taylor Tailiulu, WLB Jeremiah Allison
Offensive skill positions returning- QB Luke Falke, leading reciever Gabe Marks (104/1,192/11.5/15 TDs), top 3 leading rushers, 3rd/4th/5th/6th leading receivers
We play Wazzu at Home
6)Oregon
Returning Starters-6-offense/5-defense all specialists return
QB-new starter 5th yr transfer Dokota Prokup
Lose 3 of 5 OL, lose 2 of 3 DL....lose all 4 LBs, return all 4 DBs
Biggest Losses-leading QB Vernon Adams, DE DeForst Buckner, leading WR Bralon Addison (63/804/12.8/10 TDs), OLBs Tyson Coleman/Christian French, LT/LG/C Tyler Johnstone/Matt Pierson/Matt Hegarty, NG Alex Balducci, ILBs Rodney Hardrick/Joe Walker
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-Top 3 RBs Royce Freeman/Taj Griffin/Kani Benoit, 2nd/3rd/4th leading WRs Darren Carrington/Dwayne Standford/Charles Nelson
We play Oregon in Eugene
7)AU
Returning Starters-7-Offense/7-Defense (assuming returns from injury) lose their PK/P/LS return KOR/PR
QB-Anu Solomon returns
Return 3 of 5 OL and 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Caleb Jones (55/904/16.4/5 TDs), leading rusher (due to Wilson's injury) Jared Baker (131/798/6.1/9 TDs), 3rd leading rusher Jarrard Randal (78/702/9.0/5 TDs), 2nd leading WR Johnnie Jackson (50/612/12.2/5 TDs), 4th leading WR David Richards(43/548/12.7/4TDs)
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-QB Anu Solomon ((205/330/2,667/62.1/20 TDs/5 INTs), 2nd leading rusher Nick Wilson (133/725/5.5/8 TDs), 3rd/5th/6th leading receivers Nate Phillips/Samaji Grant/Trey Griffey
We play AU in Tucson
8)Colorado
Returning Starters-9-Offense/8-defense return Punter/PK/KOR lose PR/LS
QB-Sefo Liufau returns
Return 4 of 5 OL, 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-leading WR Neslon Spruce (89/1,053/11.8/4 TDs), LT Stehan Nembot, DT Justin Solis, FS Jared Bell, CB Ken Crawley
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-QB Sefo Liufau (214-344/2,418/62.2%/9 TDs/6 INTs), leading rusher Phillip Lindsey (140/653/4.7/6TDs), 2nd/3rd/4th leading receivers Shay Fields/Devin Ross/Sean Irwin,
We play Colorado in Boulder
9)Utah
Returning Starters-5-Offense/6-Defense return PK Andy Phillips/LS/PR/KOR
QB-new starter--RS Jr juco transfer Troy Williams?
Return 4 of 5 OL, return 3 of 4 DL...lose all 3 LBs, return all 4 DBs
Biggest Losses-Punter Tom Hackett, QB Travis Wilson(and 2nd leading rusher), Leading RB Devonte Booker, 2nd leading WR Kenneth Scott (39/457/11.7/4 TDs, LBs Gionni Paul/Jared Norris/Jason Wittingham
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-3rd leading rusher Joe WIlliams (104/477/4.6/3 TDs), Leading receiver Brian Covey (43/519/12.1/4 TDs)
We play Utah at Home
10)Cal
Returning Starters-4-Offense/6-Defense return PK/LS/PR lose Punter/KOR
QB-new starter "That's one of the things we've always done pretty well is figure out what a quarterback can do and adjust the offense accordingly," Dykes said.
Return 4 of 5 OL, return 2 of 4 DL
Biggest Losses-QB Jared Goff, top 6 WRs Lawler/Treggs/Davis/Powe/Harris/Anderson, LT Brian Farley, DT Mustafa Jalil, CB Jarius White
Offensive Skill Positions Returning-top 3 rushers from 2015 Khalfani Muhammed (87/586/5.7/1 TD), Vic Enwere (106/505/4.8/8) &Tre Watson (89/504/5.7/3 TDs). The leading returning receiver had 19/249/13.1/1 TD)
We play Cal at home
11)Oregon State
Returning Starters-8-Offense/8-Defense all specialists return
QB-new starter Utah St. transfer Darryl Garretson
Return 3 of 5 OL, lose 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses-CB Larry Scott, NT Kyle Peco, RG Isaac Seumalo, top 2 rushers Seth Collins and Storm Woods,
Offensive Skill Position Players Returning-top 2 leading receivers Villamin (43/660/15.3/5 TDs) & Victor Boldin (46/461/10.0/3 TDs), 3rd leading rusher Ryan Nall (73/455/6.2/3 TDs)
We don't play OSU
ASU
Returning Starters-6-Offense/5-Defense all specialists return
QB-new starter
Lose 4 of 5 OL. return 2 of 3 DL
Biggest Losses- 4 starting OL, QB Mike Bercovici, leading WR Devin Lucien, leading sack/TFL Tony Longino, CB Lloyd Carrington, NT Demetrious Cherry, BS Jordan Simone, 3rd leading receiver/3rd leading rusher DJ Foster
Offensive Skill Position Players Returning-top 2 rushers Demario Richard & Kalen Ballage, 2nd leading WR Tim White (57/633/11.1/8 TDs), 5th leading receiver TE Kody Kohl (32/368/11.5/4TDs)
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