Better late than never!
For those of you that have been with Hod for a while, you're familiar with the season win probabilities that I put out every year. They're usually good conversation starters.
Here is the methodology:
- I assign a probability of a win to each game, rounding to the nearest 5th%
- I add up all of the probabilities to arrive at an over/under total wins for the season
- I update the probabilities each week, depending on how we play, injuries, and how other teams look
- You all put your probabilities down each week, too, or at least whine and complain about mine
The 2015 season (as I see it on 9/1/15):
Texas A&M .50
Cal Poly 1.00
New Mexico .95
USC .50
UCLA .50
CU .90
UU .55
UO .40
WSU .85
UW .75
au .65
Cal .70
Total season over/under: 8.25
Please note that I actually have us favored in 8 games, even in three games, and only underdogs in one game. So, assuming we win the games we're favored in, lose the game we're 'dogs in, and split the others I'm predicting 9-10 wins.
For those of you that have been with Hod for a while, you're familiar with the season win probabilities that I put out every year. They're usually good conversation starters.
Here is the methodology:
- I assign a probability of a win to each game, rounding to the nearest 5th%
- I add up all of the probabilities to arrive at an over/under total wins for the season
- I update the probabilities each week, depending on how we play, injuries, and how other teams look
- You all put your probabilities down each week, too, or at least whine and complain about mine
The 2015 season (as I see it on 9/1/15):
Texas A&M .50
Cal Poly 1.00
New Mexico .95
USC .50
UCLA .50
CU .90
UU .55
UO .40
WSU .85
UW .75
au .65
Cal .70
Total season over/under: 8.25
Please note that I actually have us favored in 8 games, even in three games, and only underdogs in one game. So, assuming we win the games we're favored in, lose the game we're 'dogs in, and split the others I'm predicting 9-10 wins.
