I have listed the probability of winning (my opinion of that, of course) below for each game this year. The result is my final win prediction for 2022. I will update the probabilities each week, depending on how we and our opponents look.
If you're new to DD or forget how this works, here is a link to last year's thread: https://arizonastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/season-win-probability-prediction-thread.33442/
Opponent (win probability, rounded to the nearest 5%):
NAU (95%) - not worried about losing, but how we look can tell us something about the rest of the season
@Okie St (10%) - don't think we can score enough points
EMU (90%) - not too worried about this one, even with the great Ron English having coached there
Utah (25%) - Wittingham >> Herm
@USC (35%) - would be 50/50 at home, but less on the road
UW (65%) - need to see more but right now I think our D will hold their O down enough
BYE
@'furd (60%) - until I see differently, I think 'furd is going to struggle like in recent years
@CU (50%) - not sure how to pick this one until I see both teams in action
UCLA (35%) - I think Chip will have them playing well this year
@WSU (50%) - not sure how to pick this one until I see both teams in action
OSU (60%) - we will avenge our loss last year
@au (75%) - I may be a little on the high side here, but they still shouldn't be good in the trenches
Total Win Prediction for 2022 (as of 9/1/22): 6.5 wins by being favored (>60%) in 4; dog s(<40%) in 4; and 4 tossups (40%-60%)
Where am I wrong? Am I too optimistic or pessimistic?
What say you?
If you're new to DD or forget how this works, here is a link to last year's thread: https://arizonastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/season-win-probability-prediction-thread.33442/
Opponent (win probability, rounded to the nearest 5%):
NAU (95%) - not worried about losing, but how we look can tell us something about the rest of the season
@Okie St (10%) - don't think we can score enough points
EMU (90%) - not too worried about this one, even with the great Ron English having coached there
Utah (25%) - Wittingham >> Herm
@USC (35%) - would be 50/50 at home, but less on the road
UW (65%) - need to see more but right now I think our D will hold their O down enough
BYE
@'furd (60%) - until I see differently, I think 'furd is going to struggle like in recent years
@CU (50%) - not sure how to pick this one until I see both teams in action
UCLA (35%) - I think Chip will have them playing well this year
@WSU (50%) - not sure how to pick this one until I see both teams in action
OSU (60%) - we will avenge our loss last year
@au (75%) - I may be a little on the high side here, but they still shouldn't be good in the trenches
Total Win Prediction for 2022 (as of 9/1/22): 6.5 wins by being favored (>60%) in 4; dog s(<40%) in 4; and 4 tossups (40%-60%)
Where am I wrong? Am I too optimistic or pessimistic?
What say you?
