I’ll give you the bottom line and then analyze each pick.
1. USC
2. Washington
3. Utah
4. Oregon
5. Oregon State
6. Arizona State
7. UCLA
8. Arizona
9. Washington State
10. Colorado
11. Cal
12. Stanford
Analysis:
1. USC
The Trojans probably had the most disappointing double-digit (11) win season in school history, losing twice to Utah and thus not winning a Pac-12 championship and having one heck of a head-scratching loss to Tulane in a bowl game. Nonetheless, that should not create any apprehension about their prospects this year.
Maybe Caleb Williams won’t achieve the near-impossible feat of being a back-to-back Heisman Trophy winner, but there’s no reason to think that he cannot come close to duplicating the ridiculous offensive numbers that he and his offense put up in 2023. Dorian Singer is a solid addition to try and replace what Jordan Addison contributed to the team last year, and who knows if true freshman WR Zachariah Branch doesn’t ultimately steal the spotlight and becomes the favorite target for Williams. USC’s rushing game should showcase improvement and do more than enough to keep defenses honest.
USC won many games last year despite a defense that was average at best. I think they can improve just enough to help USC get over the hump and win the conference championship, but there’s no doubt that there’s a huge burden of proof on this side of the ball.
The schedule is generally comfortable with three out of the four road games against teams that they should be heavy favorites, and their matchup in Eugene might be the one that could determine whether they win their first conference championship since 2017, and I think they will.
2. Washington
My decision to rank Washington at No. 2 was not an easy one. I do think, though, that their game at USC will be the one that will regulate them, for lack of a better term, to the runner-up position.
In many ways, this team is a carbon copy of the Trojans in terms of having an offense that can put up points at will but also a questionable defense that gave up just under 30 points per game in conference contests last year. And as talented as a quarterback as Michael Penix is, having an offensive line that needs to replace three starters could become an issue. And on the other side of the ball, a pass defense that for several years was the envy of the conference showed a lot of chinks in the armor and became just middle of the road unit last season. This is a factor I think will hinder them once again in trying to capture the Pac-12 crown.
It is a fairly comfortable schedule for the Huskies, getting Oregon and Utah at home. However, a road game at Oregon State will be anything but a cakewalk, and maybe even the road game at Michigan State could be a pitfall, especially being early in the season. But again, it just may all come down to the contest in the LA Coliseum.
3. Utah
Perhaps the most obvious storyline of any prediction made in this ballot is the Utes’ quarterback situation.
Cam Rising is responsible for the effective balance attack we’ve seen in recent years from this team, but the fact that he tore an ACL in the Rose Bowl contest on January 1st of this year certainly puts into question as to whether he will be fully healed when the season kicks off. Reportedly he will practice with no limitations with only two weeks to go before the opener, and it’s anybody’s guess if he can be back to his old form in short order and if the approach on offense changes, and can it be modified without having adverse effects. There seems to be optimism about their ground attack, and it may be a group that will be asked to do more than expected if Rising is not playing to his full potential due to his recovery from a serious injury.
And when you have a defense returning eight starters, suffice it to say that this side of the ball will have to win more than a game or two if the offense sputters. Granted, the few absences from last year’s starters do take place in the defensive backfield in cornerback Clark Phillips and safety RJ Hubert, yet I think there’s still enough talent there to stop any aerial attack not named USC or Washington and both of those contests as they are taking place away from Salt Lake City.
And those aren’t the only two challenging games on the schedule. If Rising struggles early on in the year in games versus Florida and at Baylor, this can spell some troubles for the rest of the year. But when it’s all said and done, it’s really hard to bet against a team that posted their last single-digit win season (not counting the Covid year, of course) in 2018. So picking them third is probably anything but a popular pick, but I definitely think it is achievable.
4. Oregon
Bo Nix’s “quarterback whisperer “has returned to his alma mater in Tempe, and I believe that can have enough of an effect to prevent the Ducks from contending. Yes, he will be surrounded by plenty of playmakers, but will a new offensive coordinator, as well as needing to replace nearly the entire front five, take some kind of toll on this side of the ball?
And on defense, this is another unit that did leave a lot to be desired in 2022, and replacing linebacker Noah Sewell and first-round draft pick cornerback Christian Gonzalez is not going to be seamless, although maybe the rushing defense is the true Achilles heel for the team?
Road games at Washington and Utah will be extremely challenging, but getting USC and Oregon State at home could balance that out. Overall, I feel as if major offensive changes and a defense that still has much to prove can keep the Ducks in the upper echelon of the standings but not result in a better record than last year.
5. Oregon State
This prediction may be a bit harsher than the general sentiment out there, but let’s not forget that the Beavers achieved their 10-3 record after winning the last four games in a row. And when you are following a season where everything seemingly went your way, then the pigskin bounces in 2022 may not be that kind the following season.
No, I didn’t forget that quarterback DJ Uiagalelei transferred from Clemson, but I have a feeling some forget that he didn’t have a stellar 2022 season there, either. Yes, running back Damien Martinez and wide receiver Anthony Gould could benefit from their new signal caller if he were to turn in a better performance than last year, but this offense doesn’t come across as dangerous enough to challenge the race for the league championship.
Their defense paced the Pac-12 last season, and while it’s still a solid unit coming into 2023, I question whether the losses of linebacker Omar Speights and defensive backs Rejzohn Wright and Jaydon Grant can be replaced to a degree where a significant drop-off doesn’t occur. I can’t see this group winning contests against the other upper-echelon teams.
Even though they miss USC, this isn’t a team that can beat programs such as Utah and Washington at home, and you know that Oregon would love nothing more to avenge a bitter Civil War loss, and this time they will face their in-state rival in Eugene.
1. USC
2. Washington
3. Utah
4. Oregon
5. Oregon State
6. Arizona State
7. UCLA
8. Arizona
9. Washington State
10. Colorado
11. Cal
12. Stanford
Analysis:
1. USC
The Trojans probably had the most disappointing double-digit (11) win season in school history, losing twice to Utah and thus not winning a Pac-12 championship and having one heck of a head-scratching loss to Tulane in a bowl game. Nonetheless, that should not create any apprehension about their prospects this year.
Maybe Caleb Williams won’t achieve the near-impossible feat of being a back-to-back Heisman Trophy winner, but there’s no reason to think that he cannot come close to duplicating the ridiculous offensive numbers that he and his offense put up in 2023. Dorian Singer is a solid addition to try and replace what Jordan Addison contributed to the team last year, and who knows if true freshman WR Zachariah Branch doesn’t ultimately steal the spotlight and becomes the favorite target for Williams. USC’s rushing game should showcase improvement and do more than enough to keep defenses honest.
USC won many games last year despite a defense that was average at best. I think they can improve just enough to help USC get over the hump and win the conference championship, but there’s no doubt that there’s a huge burden of proof on this side of the ball.
The schedule is generally comfortable with three out of the four road games against teams that they should be heavy favorites, and their matchup in Eugene might be the one that could determine whether they win their first conference championship since 2017, and I think they will.
2. Washington
My decision to rank Washington at No. 2 was not an easy one. I do think, though, that their game at USC will be the one that will regulate them, for lack of a better term, to the runner-up position.
In many ways, this team is a carbon copy of the Trojans in terms of having an offense that can put up points at will but also a questionable defense that gave up just under 30 points per game in conference contests last year. And as talented as a quarterback as Michael Penix is, having an offensive line that needs to replace three starters could become an issue. And on the other side of the ball, a pass defense that for several years was the envy of the conference showed a lot of chinks in the armor and became just middle of the road unit last season. This is a factor I think will hinder them once again in trying to capture the Pac-12 crown.
It is a fairly comfortable schedule for the Huskies, getting Oregon and Utah at home. However, a road game at Oregon State will be anything but a cakewalk, and maybe even the road game at Michigan State could be a pitfall, especially being early in the season. But again, it just may all come down to the contest in the LA Coliseum.
3. Utah
Perhaps the most obvious storyline of any prediction made in this ballot is the Utes’ quarterback situation.
Cam Rising is responsible for the effective balance attack we’ve seen in recent years from this team, but the fact that he tore an ACL in the Rose Bowl contest on January 1st of this year certainly puts into question as to whether he will be fully healed when the season kicks off. Reportedly he will practice with no limitations with only two weeks to go before the opener, and it’s anybody’s guess if he can be back to his old form in short order and if the approach on offense changes, and can it be modified without having adverse effects. There seems to be optimism about their ground attack, and it may be a group that will be asked to do more than expected if Rising is not playing to his full potential due to his recovery from a serious injury.
And when you have a defense returning eight starters, suffice it to say that this side of the ball will have to win more than a game or two if the offense sputters. Granted, the few absences from last year’s starters do take place in the defensive backfield in cornerback Clark Phillips and safety RJ Hubert, yet I think there’s still enough talent there to stop any aerial attack not named USC or Washington and both of those contests as they are taking place away from Salt Lake City.
And those aren’t the only two challenging games on the schedule. If Rising struggles early on in the year in games versus Florida and at Baylor, this can spell some troubles for the rest of the year. But when it’s all said and done, it’s really hard to bet against a team that posted their last single-digit win season (not counting the Covid year, of course) in 2018. So picking them third is probably anything but a popular pick, but I definitely think it is achievable.
4. Oregon
Bo Nix’s “quarterback whisperer “has returned to his alma mater in Tempe, and I believe that can have enough of an effect to prevent the Ducks from contending. Yes, he will be surrounded by plenty of playmakers, but will a new offensive coordinator, as well as needing to replace nearly the entire front five, take some kind of toll on this side of the ball?
And on defense, this is another unit that did leave a lot to be desired in 2022, and replacing linebacker Noah Sewell and first-round draft pick cornerback Christian Gonzalez is not going to be seamless, although maybe the rushing defense is the true Achilles heel for the team?
Road games at Washington and Utah will be extremely challenging, but getting USC and Oregon State at home could balance that out. Overall, I feel as if major offensive changes and a defense that still has much to prove can keep the Ducks in the upper echelon of the standings but not result in a better record than last year.
5. Oregon State
This prediction may be a bit harsher than the general sentiment out there, but let’s not forget that the Beavers achieved their 10-3 record after winning the last four games in a row. And when you are following a season where everything seemingly went your way, then the pigskin bounces in 2022 may not be that kind the following season.
No, I didn’t forget that quarterback DJ Uiagalelei transferred from Clemson, but I have a feeling some forget that he didn’t have a stellar 2022 season there, either. Yes, running back Damien Martinez and wide receiver Anthony Gould could benefit from their new signal caller if he were to turn in a better performance than last year, but this offense doesn’t come across as dangerous enough to challenge the race for the league championship.
Their defense paced the Pac-12 last season, and while it’s still a solid unit coming into 2023, I question whether the losses of linebacker Omar Speights and defensive backs Rejzohn Wright and Jaydon Grant can be replaced to a degree where a significant drop-off doesn’t occur. I can’t see this group winning contests against the other upper-echelon teams.
Even though they miss USC, this isn’t a team that can beat programs such as Utah and Washington at home, and you know that Oregon would love nothing more to avenge a bitter Civil War loss, and this time they will face their in-state rival in Eugene.
