The top 5 conference champions get a playoff spot.
Locks
1) Big 10
2) SEC
Very Likely
3) ACC: Miami and SMU (both with just 1 loss) seem to be on a collision course for the ACC championship game with the winner locking up a bid
4) MW: Boise State's only loss on the year was a 1 point loss at Oregon. They finish out the season with easy games against Wyoming and Oregon State then likely play a tough UNLV team for the MW championship in Boise.
Up for Grabs
5) A 2 loss ASU then has to make its case against the American Athletic champion which would be Army or Tulane. Both are ranked in the top 25. Army is probably going to get smashed by Notre Dame next week but that leaves them with just 1 loss. If they run the table after that then they have a compelling case. Tulane only has Memphis left and then Army. I think ASU probably gets in over both, but a 1 loss Army is a threat for sure.