Let's take a look at the remaining hoops schedule to figure out the potential outcomes for the Pac 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
Where we're at
Currently, ASU is tied with Oregon for 7th in the conference at 7-7, a half game ahead of Colorado (7-8) for 9th place and a full game behind UW (8-6) and Stanford (8-6) for 5th place.
Our remaining games:
@ Oregon
@ Oregon St.
Cal
Stanford
Find tiebreaker rules in section 2.2 here: http://championships.pac-12.org/wp-.../2016-Mens-Basketball-Tournament-Handbook.pdf
Scenario 1: win out regular season
In this scenario, ASU would finish the season 11-7 in conference, which would be a respectable finish after a rough start. But what would their seed be in the Pac12T? It's really difficult to project becuase of the potential ties and tiebreakers.
Utah is two games ahead in the win column, currently 4th in the conference at 9-6. They play the LA schools this week at home, CU next week at home. If they win two and are tied with the Devils at 11-7, ASU would have the tiebreaker and would be the 4th seed because ASU and Utah split the season series and were both swept by au (1st in P12) but ASU swept the LA schools (who are likely to be the next best team for tiebreaker purposes) while Utah can only split with them after losing both games in LA earlier this season. Advantage: ASU (4th seed P12T)
But Stanford also plays into this scenario. They have four games left, home vs the Washington schools then at the Arizona schools. Because this scenario is based on ASU winning out, that means Stanford could cause a three way tiebreaker at 11-8 if they win the other three. Because three way tiebreakers are decided via won-loss percentage of collective head-to-head competition of each of the teams, ASU would likely lose this tiebreaker because the Devils played two of the best four teams in the conference only once in USC and UCLA while the other two teams played the both twice. Advantage: not ASU (likely 6th seed in P12T)
If ASU and Stanford tie head to head at 11-7, Stanford would win the tiebreaker because ASU and Stanford would have split the season series, but the Trees would have a win over the Pac 12's best team, au. Advantage: Stanford (5th seed Pac 12T)
Obviously, without any tiebreakers ASU would be the 4th seed. There are scenarios where ASU ties with one or both of the LA schools for second or third or with Utah and one of the LA schools for fourth; however, I don't think those scenarios are likely. But, just in case, ASU tied with one LA school, ASU has the tiebreaker. Any multi-team scenarios, not good for ASU.
Scenario 2: win three of the remaining four
There are too many scenarios that could present themselves in this situation to analyze them all, but I'll address a few of them.
If ASU and Utah end up tied at 10-8, ASU wins the tiebreaker and would be 4th seed. If ASU and Stanford finish tied at 10-8, ASU has the tiebreaker if Stanford loses to au (4th seed) and loses the tiebreaker if Stanford beats au (5th seed).
Like above, if ASU, Utah, and anyone else all tie at 10-8, ASU missing the second games vs. the LA schools will hurt them in the W-L percentage calculations that determine the multi-team tiebreakers (likely 6th or lower seed).
If ASU and Oregon are tied at 10-8, Oregon would win the tiebreaker either way (ASU 5th seed).
Scenario 3: Split the remaining regular season games
It's really difficult to imagine a scenario where ASU can get to the 4th seed winning only two remaining games. The Devils would be 9-9 and likely tied with a bunch of other teams if 9-9 was good for a tie for 4th. As stated above, multi-team ties are bad for ASU. (6th or lower seed)
The question then becomes what is best for the Devils going into the Pac 12 Tournament. It's probably personal preference regarding whether you'd want to get the 6th seed with an easier second round match up or be in the 8/9 game with a shot at another quadrant one win against au in the second round. I'd probably lean toward the former but wouldn't be mad at the latter.
Scenario 4: Only win one of the four
This would almost guarantee a spot in the 8-9 game on Wednesday.
Scenario 5: Lose out
Too depressing to analyze..
NCAA Tournament Projections
I'm in the camp that thinks one more win - any win - and we're dancing. Anything more than that helps our seeding. My prognostication:
7 more wins (including au in P12T): 5 seed
7 more wins (not including au): 6 seed
6 more wins (including au): 6 seed
6 more wins (not including au): 7 seed
5 more wins (including au): 7 seed
5 more wins (not including au): 8 seed
So on and so forth.*
*USC and UCLA are barely inside the RPI top 50. If they can hold on and remain there, wins against them in Vegas would be viewed the same as wins against au by the committee. That said, their RPI position is tenuous and very dependent on how they finish out the season so I haven't included them in my NCAAT projections as Q1 win potentials.
Where we're at
Currently, ASU is tied with Oregon for 7th in the conference at 7-7, a half game ahead of Colorado (7-8) for 9th place and a full game behind UW (8-6) and Stanford (8-6) for 5th place.
Our remaining games:
@ Oregon
@ Oregon St.
Cal
Stanford
Find tiebreaker rules in section 2.2 here: http://championships.pac-12.org/wp-.../2016-Mens-Basketball-Tournament-Handbook.pdf
Scenario 1: win out regular season
In this scenario, ASU would finish the season 11-7 in conference, which would be a respectable finish after a rough start. But what would their seed be in the Pac12T? It's really difficult to project becuase of the potential ties and tiebreakers.
Utah is two games ahead in the win column, currently 4th in the conference at 9-6. They play the LA schools this week at home, CU next week at home. If they win two and are tied with the Devils at 11-7, ASU would have the tiebreaker and would be the 4th seed because ASU and Utah split the season series and were both swept by au (1st in P12) but ASU swept the LA schools (who are likely to be the next best team for tiebreaker purposes) while Utah can only split with them after losing both games in LA earlier this season. Advantage: ASU (4th seed P12T)
But Stanford also plays into this scenario. They have four games left, home vs the Washington schools then at the Arizona schools. Because this scenario is based on ASU winning out, that means Stanford could cause a three way tiebreaker at 11-8 if they win the other three. Because three way tiebreakers are decided via won-loss percentage of collective head-to-head competition of each of the teams, ASU would likely lose this tiebreaker because the Devils played two of the best four teams in the conference only once in USC and UCLA while the other two teams played the both twice. Advantage: not ASU (likely 6th seed in P12T)
If ASU and Stanford tie head to head at 11-7, Stanford would win the tiebreaker because ASU and Stanford would have split the season series, but the Trees would have a win over the Pac 12's best team, au. Advantage: Stanford (5th seed Pac 12T)
Obviously, without any tiebreakers ASU would be the 4th seed. There are scenarios where ASU ties with one or both of the LA schools for second or third or with Utah and one of the LA schools for fourth; however, I don't think those scenarios are likely. But, just in case, ASU tied with one LA school, ASU has the tiebreaker. Any multi-team scenarios, not good for ASU.
Scenario 2: win three of the remaining four
There are too many scenarios that could present themselves in this situation to analyze them all, but I'll address a few of them.
If ASU and Utah end up tied at 10-8, ASU wins the tiebreaker and would be 4th seed. If ASU and Stanford finish tied at 10-8, ASU has the tiebreaker if Stanford loses to au (4th seed) and loses the tiebreaker if Stanford beats au (5th seed).
Like above, if ASU, Utah, and anyone else all tie at 10-8, ASU missing the second games vs. the LA schools will hurt them in the W-L percentage calculations that determine the multi-team tiebreakers (likely 6th or lower seed).
If ASU and Oregon are tied at 10-8, Oregon would win the tiebreaker either way (ASU 5th seed).
Scenario 3: Split the remaining regular season games
It's really difficult to imagine a scenario where ASU can get to the 4th seed winning only two remaining games. The Devils would be 9-9 and likely tied with a bunch of other teams if 9-9 was good for a tie for 4th. As stated above, multi-team ties are bad for ASU. (6th or lower seed)
The question then becomes what is best for the Devils going into the Pac 12 Tournament. It's probably personal preference regarding whether you'd want to get the 6th seed with an easier second round match up or be in the 8/9 game with a shot at another quadrant one win against au in the second round. I'd probably lean toward the former but wouldn't be mad at the latter.
Scenario 4: Only win one of the four
This would almost guarantee a spot in the 8-9 game on Wednesday.
Scenario 5: Lose out
Too depressing to analyze..
NCAA Tournament Projections
I'm in the camp that thinks one more win - any win - and we're dancing. Anything more than that helps our seeding. My prognostication:
7 more wins (including au in P12T): 5 seed
7 more wins (not including au): 6 seed
6 more wins (including au): 6 seed
6 more wins (not including au): 7 seed
5 more wins (including au): 7 seed
5 more wins (not including au): 8 seed
So on and so forth.*
*USC and UCLA are barely inside the RPI top 50. If they can hold on and remain there, wins against them in Vegas would be viewed the same as wins against au by the committee. That said, their RPI position is tenuous and very dependent on how they finish out the season so I haven't included them in my NCAAT projections as Q1 win potentials.
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