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Sunday Walkabout

Mornin Mates...

Today's Topic = Misery Loves Company

So, are Todd Graham, Rich Rod and Jim Mora all lousy coaches who are vastly overpaid for what they do for their schools: ASU, AU and UCLA..??

Or, were they all just snake-bit this year given all the injuries they suffered, especially at the all important QB position..??

If you look at their respective records, I think it would be very hard to conclude and foolish to say that they are all crummy coaches...they've all won the South PAC title in their first five years on the job, using to a large extent, the players inherited from former coaches, supplemented with some of their players...

Both ASU and AU were not picked highly before the season began and basically ended up where predicted or near the bottom of the PAC totem pole, while UCLA vastly under-performed given their expectations for the season...

Would their respective seasons have ended differently if they had not had significant injuries to their starting QBs during the season..??

In the Sun Devils case, I would think that if Wilkins hadn't been injured that the Devils well may have won another couple of games, which would've changed our perception of the program at this point, to one degree or another...

Of course, this does not assuage the dreadful performance of our defense that was pathetic for the second straight season and that aspect of the program needs to be addressed immediately by Todd, as we all know...

As you know, I think the majority of the team's problems are associated with a lack of talent and/or quality depth at certain positions and, that if we get some better personnel in place at those positions, things will improve but there are also other elements at work here that we've been over numerous times already...

Aside from the talent and other associated issues (defensive philosophy and coaching) what the heck happened..??

I think that can be summarized in one word...demoralization...which happens when reality keeps smashing you over the head despite your efforts to do better...

Demoralization destroys the morale of players, bewilders coaches, fans and boosters and corrupts play on the field, which explains all the bad penalties that happened more and more as the season progressed...

And, you could easily point to the programs at ASU, AU and UCLA and make the case for what demoralization does when it kicks in and can't be shooed away...performance goes down and wins become a lot less likely...

On another related note, I don't know what changes, if any, Todd may make this off-season regarding his staff, defensive philosophy, recruiting strategy and vision for his football program, but I do know the importance of having continuity in the program and wonder how much losing all of those coaches and other football related personnel last year may have hindered everything this season, in addition to the injuries, etc...

Looking ahead, I know that on defense we need some bigger bodies along the DL, much better depth at LB and an almost complete rebuild of the secondary...

On offense, the only real question mark for me is at the all important QB position where Wilkins didn't do as well as I expected, keeping in mind that his OL didn't help him much and he was injured a lot that had to effect his performance significantly...

If Graham can correct those deficiencies in the off-season then I think we stand a pretty good chance of getting back on track and becoming a PAC contender rather than conference bottom feeder...

As always, I'll look forward to your feedback...:)

G'day Mates and Go Devils!!!

UofA game tonight

Currently low 70's, breezy to windy, hazy/ cloudy with no rain in forecast today.. The game should end in mid 50's but with the wind it can feel pretty nippy. Bring a jacket for certain.

I have been miserable before if the winds pick up and had no jacket and just a windbreaker.

This is my public service message....... for fellow Sun Devils.

  • Poll
This will not be popular but Fire Todd Graham

Fire Todd Graham

  • Yes

    Votes: 26 33.8%
  • No

    Votes: 51 66.2%

I will begin by saying Todd Graham (TG) has been great for the program since the Dennis Erickson era. However, TG was able to capitalize with most of his players. He has brought discipline and has re-energized ASU fans. He was the coach of the year and had ASU in the PAC-12 championship against Stanford.

I really like TG for many reasons. I like that he has increased local recruiting. But if we want to become a power school (consistently in the top 25) he needs to be fired. This one loss is that BAD.

Last year I believe he lost his coaching staff, that's why many of them jumped ship. Maybe the common denominator is Patterson, but this year he seems to have lost his players. Maybe the coaches realized where the program was heading and left before their hiring stock lost complete value.
Maybe TG is so enamored with Patterson that he blinded about the reality of this program.

At this point we are going to lose recruits, the program is losing its luster, and it's just a dressed up hooptie with some nice rims and tires and primer. My suggestion is to fire TG! He no longer commands his employees or players. The fan base is losing patience. Go out and get someone like PJ Fleck but he is most likely unavailable. Although an interesting candidate but not a real possibility is Jim Tressel. Bring on the sweater vests.

TL/DR
Fire TG because he has lost this program, hire a new coach now so we don't continue down this downward spiral. Maroon and Gold sweater vests?

ASU should keep CTG through his contract

Since Snyder, we have hired a new coach every 5-6 years. CTG has completely changed the program. Recruiting is better every year, the players are attending class and graduating, and we (generally, not recently) have committed less penalties per game.

This year 2016 crowned the 5th (different) Pac-12 South Division School as Champ in the 6 years of The Conference. The final loss for ASU in 2016 sucks. But prior to the season, most people picked ASU as a 5-7 team, if not worse. Perspective: 5 of our 7 losses were against teams that were ranked (this week) in week #12 of the season. We had a chance to win a couple of those games.

The 2016 injuries .. None of us need more detail.

Would I rather have a 5-7 record that includes a win against the Rats? Heck YES. Do I think we played terrible in that game, against a crap team, and have a ton of work to do? Heck YES. So what is the answer?

For myself, it's not firing a coach who we all loved for 3 years. There are MAJOR concerns with this team: QB, O-Line, Secondary. But we knew this in 2015, expected a learning process in 2016, and also know we have young talent that will play next year. Side note, our O-Line in 2016 featured redshirt freshmen that will improve with the experience.

CTG wants to coach at ASU. CTG wants to win. CTG is our brother in this brotherhood. We win Pac-12 South Championships together and we go 5-7 together. Keep your heads up my fellow Sun Devils. We will be much better in 2017.

An Open Letter to Coach Todd Graham

Dear Coach Graham,

I'm still behind you. You still have my support. I assume your stomach, much like mine, is in knots over what happened last night during the Territorial Cup game. Watching you speak to the media after the game last night... I didn't pay much attention to your words. But I was focused on your face. Your tone. I didn't expect you to say anything that would make you or I feel better about the loss, but I was wondering how much you cared.

In my young 28 years of life you are the coach that has made this team the most exciting for me. When I graduated college and had the financial resources to really follow our team to bowl games I did so with a true and genuine belief in what you are doing at ASU. I don't think that has changed. I believe the core of what you want to do here at ASU is the same. But something HAS changed...

What concerns me is I can't put my finger on what that change is. As an ASU fan I am nothing but an armchair observer of everything going on in this program. I see what happens on TV, I read what the media reports, and I get some extra information from publishers of paid forum services. But what do I really know? Not much I imagine. I imagine there are things going on within your program that none of us are privy to. We shouldn't be. It's personal. It's about a coach's relationships with his players and his co-coaches. But it feels funny. The team doesn't seem to play like they used to. During our ten win seasons our guys seemed to play with a scrap and aggression that wasn't there this season. Where did it go? How can we get it back?

Could it just be my mistaken perception? Maybe. But while most of the ASU fan base doesn't know what is going on in the locker room, I think we live in a country where sports are such a focus that all of us can clearly see when a team isn't giving 100%.

I want you to know you still have my support. I think there is a strong majority of ASU fans who feel the same. Under Erickson we saw the identity of this team become something we weren't proud of. They had little character and they weren't winning. You changed that. You gave us hope of a stronger team with a higher level of character. This, I feel, galvanized our fan base.

I'm hoping you'll continue to push and lead in a way that puts the goals of this program first. As long as you remain a Sun Devil who is clearly making decisions that are best for our team in a way that provides results on the field and in the classroom I'm with you.

I'm still All In.

-SunDevil03

No Heart

This is what bothers me the most. I expected the defense to be bad. I expected our offense to have its limitations And struggles tonight.

I didn't expect them to come out flat. The players looked like they didn't even want to be there tonight. This is the TERRITORIAL CUP, and you come out flat?? How do you explain that? That falls on Graham.

UA played with passion and with purpose tonight. They wanted it bad and it showed. It couldn't have been more opposite for ASU. That was the most disheartening thing about the game tonight for me.

  • Poll
Sun Devil Christmas List: (Poll)

What Would You Like This Year for Christmas?

  • A New Head Coach

    Votes: 5 12.8%
  • A New Defensive Coordinator/Defensive Philosophy

    Votes: 30 76.9%
  • A New Offensive Coordinator/Offensive Philosophy

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • A New Special Teams Coach/Special Teams Philosophy

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • A New O-Line Coach

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • A New D-Line Coach

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Better Talent Across the Board

    Votes: 4 10.3%

With Christmas approaching fast and the off season here, I thought I'd ask what all the good (and not so good) little Sun Devil fans would like from Santa this year? Granted I know there's a lot we'd like, but let me put a little wrinkle on the situation....if we could only address ONE issue this off season what would it be?

Vote in the poll and feel free to discuss in the comment section. Feel free to prioritize too in the comment section as to what your first, second, third, etc choices would be.

2016 Season Win Probabilities

Tomorrow starts the 2016 season and here is my initial attempt to put a probability on each of this year's games. Obviously, this first one is done with very little information about our opponents. It will change as I'm able to watch other teams on our schedule and get a better feel for them and for our Devils.

Here is the methodology:

- I assign a probability of a win to each game, rounding to the nearest 5th%
- I add up all of the probabilities to arrive at an over/under total wins for the season
- I update the probabilities each week, depending on how we play, injuries, and how other teams look
- You all put your probabilities down each week, too, or at least whine and complain about mine

Game by Game predictions (win probability)

Northern Arizona (95%)
Texas Tech (65%)
@UTSA (75%)
Cal (60%)
@USC (20%)
UCLA (35%)
@Colorado (80%)
WSU (50%)
@Oregon (25%)
Utah (65%)
@UW (40%)
@au (50%)

Total wins predicted: 6.6

I have us as solid favorites in 5 games, four toss ups, and three where we're solid dogs.

Where am I wrong and why?

Not sure what to think after this debacle

I have no words to even start explaining this game. I just want it to end and not even think about this program for 3 months.

But two quick thoughts:
  • CTG has to fire Patterson and 2-3 other defensive coordinators. If he does not do that then no fan or player will have any confidence going into next year.
  • Manny is not the answer. I know this is his first real year but he just does not have the "IT" factor. If he wins out the starting QB position next year then we are in trouble.

Rushing D

Likely end up ranked 8th in Pac 12 giving up 163.08 rushing yds per game
Somewhere around 56th in FBS.

It never felt to me like we had a particularly strong rush D last year (when we were 20th in FBS) nor this year (when we were 28th going into this game).

It just felt like we were sending 6 so often that if the opponent happened to run the ball that we had a very good shot at a TFL. Also sending 6 so often last season heavily contributed to the sacks that helped the rushing stats a lot.

It felt like the major contributing factor was that there was no need to establish a ground game vs ASU when they could throw at-will

Obviously not having Sam hurts a lot this yr.
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